Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Fed moving from "considerable time" to "patience"

Language is everything in what we call the new forward guidance period in the post-QE world. There are reports that the Fed may move from language which says that rates will not increase for "a considerable time" to the Fed being "patient" before moving rates. This would mimic the language used in 2004. Still, it is not clear that this is an improvement in Fed communication. There has been a lot of talk of forward guidance but the concept has to be built on transparency and precision. The Fed has to say what it means and mean what it says. What this change may tell us is that the Fed would like a significant amount of latitude in its ability to change policy regardless of the economic numbers. 

Market analysts will have to spend time clarifying the language of patience which means that these words or phrasing has limited usefulness. If you have to ask someone to define words, then the language used is not precise enough. This is the very reason for using rules and specific guidelines. There is no ambiguity with a rule.  Precision is true forward guidance.

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