Thursday, November 6, 2014

Stagnation problem in one chart



This single chart of actual versus potential GDP tells the story for why voters and consumers are not happy with the economy. They may not be able to put it into words, but this is the aggregate demand issue.

Closing this one-time gap is what monetary and fiscal policy wants to do. It has not worked, or more precisely it has not caused the current trend to be draw closer to the potential trend.  A close look at the data suggests that the trend is on the right path, but there has been a one time loss between the middle of 2008 and 2009. The economy has not been able to shake that loss. This loss could be the leverage problem of excessive credit expansion that will not be solved under a more regulated and controlled environment.

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