Thursday, July 10, 2014

FT reports the Fed is thinking of overhauling key rates

FT reported that the Fed is thinking about overhauling its key benchmark rate - the Fed funds. It wants to form a new benchmark that includes Eurodollar rates. So let's get this straight. The Fed has manipulated the Fed funds rate so much that it has no meaning even if there is an increase in rates. There is no signalling about tightness or looseness in the fed funds market because the Fed controls most of the supply.

So the logical thing to do under this central bank created problem is change the benchmark to something else that does provide signals. The Fed can then manipulate that new rate which will include dollar funds outside of the US. The reason is to prepare for the Fed exit strategy. In reality, with so much excess reserves in the system and the Fed having such a large balance sheet, the private market has no control over Fed funds. The benchmark has no meaning; therefore, the Fed has to redefine and gobble up more of the short-term rate markets.

It is sometimes good to ask simple questions.  How is the Fed is going to raise rates with so much excess supply of reserves? How much reserves have to be drained from the system to get rates higher? I would like to hear the mechanics of this. I understand the story that will be told, but how is this actually going to get done. And how are private markets doing to determine rates? Looks like the supply and demand for credit by players outside the government is a thing of the past. If rates do not provide any credit signal what will be the price of credit?

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