Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Strange Rebels - good history




Strange Rebels - 1979 and the birth of the 21st century by Christian Caryl is a very good piece describing recent current events. It falls into the classic historical view that people change and make events not the other way around. Caryl tracks five rebels, four individuals and one group who all rose to power in 1979 and suggests how they may have had the greatest influence on the world today. This is a thoughtful exercise on the power of the individual to change futures events. The individual matters in changing the course of history but we may not know it at the time.

The focus is on John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher, Deng Xiaoping, and Ayatollah Khomeini. Surprisingly, the most powerful rebels are not the usual suspects like the US president. This is an odd group that range from a staunch capitalist, to a communist, and to religious leaders.

To be a great changer, Caryl describes how all of these individuals are outside the normal culture or tradition of the time. All four spent their formative years outside the traditional ways of thinking that dominated the period in which they grew up. Pope John Paul II was an outsider in the communist system of Poland.  John Paul II had a unique view of nationalism, Catholicism, and anti-communism. Margaret Thatcher was influenced by Ayn Rand during the socialist/Labor period of post-WWII Great Britain. Thatcher was even outside the usual Tory view in the UK at the time. Deng Xiaoping was influenced by the power of market-based economics during the the post Cultural Revolution China. He was ousted from power and had to make a unique ascent to power. Ayatollah Khomeini continued his strong devotion to Islam during the period of secular advancement in Iran. He also was an exile for a long period.

What would the 21st century be like without these four individuals? Without John Paul II, there may not have been the overthrown of communism in Eastern Europe. He drove the process forward and gave the Polish people hope for a better life. He also pushed for a more activist church around the world through his unique use of personality and power.

Margaret Thatcher changed the direction of a failing Great Britain and allowed for the ascent of more capitalist leaning governments around the Western world. Without Thatcher, there may not have been a Reagan Revolution. Again, she allowed for a muscular confrontation with the Soviet Union.

Deng Xiapong led the revolution to the current form of state capitalism in China. He was deeply influenced by pragmatic market solution where there was previously ideology. In essence, his directional change saved billions from poverty.

Ayatollah Khomeini set the transition from a secular Islamic world to one focused on religion and nationalism. What would the Middle East be like if there was a secular Iran? There may not have been a war with Iraq in the 1980's. There may not have been a war with the US? There may not have been a 9/11 event. The would not be state sponsored terrorism through their proxies. Peace in the Middle East?

It is worth thinking about what the world would be like without these four individuals. Certainly, it would not be the world we face today.

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