Sunday, October 14, 2012

US EU-zone divergence strong


If we look at the Greek crisis as really starting to have an impact on financial markets in May of 2011 when the threat of failure increased, we can see a clear divergence between the US and Euro-zone. Prior to the Greek crisis, the industrial production numbers followed the same track. The US may have increase at a faster pace in the early 2000 period, but the direction was the same. The direction has changed over the last 18 months. 

The US seems to be slowing while the EU is stating to show some improvement by the divergence will still be a key driver for monetary and fiscal policy. There will also be a divergence between equity markets with the for core differences in economic growth. There is a strong reason for the strong demand for the S&P 500 versus the Euro Stoxx. index. 

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