Risk assessment - think in probabilities

Thinking about uncertain events in terms of probability improves our risk intelligence. Who are good forecasters? Weathermen, because they will think about there forecasts in terms of chances. The above graph is from a NOAA primer on forecasting. It presents the broad array of forecasts of uncertainty from categorical forecasts to broad uncertainty. The primer presents some simple ways to judge forecast through contingency tables and Bayesian analysis. The contingency table can measure our success at forecasting with probabilities.  

The primer is worth a look for anyone trying to be a better forecaster.