Monday, December 27, 2010

The Chinese consumer may save the global economy


As China Goes, So Goes the World: How Chinese Consumers are Transforming Everything by Karl Gerth dives into the details of Chinese consumers and their rise to power. Who should care about this group? The rest of the world should because the problem of global imbalances of savings will be adjusted through having those countries which have current account surpluses spend more and those which have deficits save more. At savings rates which are close to 50% of income, China is one country which can become more consumer friendly and lead to a change in global balances.

However, a simple review of the changes in China suggest that the Chinese consumer has gone through a radical change in the last two decades. They have become significant consumers and have transformed the spending balance of the world. There may be talk about the future of the Chinese consumer, but the recent past is very impressive.

Karl Gerth provides a easy to read overview of the Chinese consumer culture and why there is no going back to the past. In a decade, the Chinese have become a significant car culture. The volume of sales outstrips the US. With the car culture comes a whole new set of freedoms and spending patterns. You can to a drive-thru for fast food. You can go to the drive-in. You can live in the suburbs. You can have a vacation.

The consumer culture is pervasive. It has changed social attitudes, mobility, and class consciousness. There is a growing feeling of abundance and excess in China that did not exist t25 years ago.

The new consumerism is transcending politics and will drive the global economy as tastes adjust to the demands from the China market. The influence of Taiwan has been especially strong. In fact, the influence of Taiwan and to a lesser extent Korea is greater than the impact of Chinese culture on these smaller countries.

The future spending pattern and the growth of a middle class with disposable income will have a more significant impact than a pick-up of US consumer spending in the next two years.

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