Some times you have to look beyond the numbers and conduct case comparison. This is especially appropriate if you are looking at business cycles because we just do not have that many occurrences of recessions. (Thankfully.) The table above provides a comparison with the '82 recovery with the current recovery. The early '80's saw the worst recession in the post-WWII period prior to our current problem.
The conclusion is that the environment is just not very good for a strong recovery. Every category looks like a problem.
Interest rates have nowhere to go but up.
Budget deficit getting worse with structural problems.
Inflation rising.
Misery index rising.
I could go on but you get the picture. There economy needs a game changer and there does not seem to be one. You have to be defensive in this environment and look elsewhere for opportunities then from being long stocks.
The conclusion is that the environment is just not very good for a strong recovery. Every category looks like a problem.
Interest rates have nowhere to go but up.
Budget deficit getting worse with structural problems.
Inflation rising.
Misery index rising.
I could go on but you get the picture. There economy needs a game changer and there does not seem to be one. You have to be defensive in this environment and look elsewhere for opportunities then from being long stocks.
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