Wednesday, October 8, 2008

In the short-run dollar move is about flows

In the short-run, fundamentals will not drive a currency. It is often about flows. The flows have been back to dollars by US investors who have sold foreign equities. Dollar flows are about foreign investors selling uncertainty in other banking systems. It can also be about changes in the tax of foreign subsidiaries of US corporations. You change the tax incentives and money will flow.

We saw a dollar "distortion" a few years back when the IRS allowed foreign profits to be repatriated back to the US at more favorable rates. We will see the same flow effect with a change in IRS rules that will allow foreign subsidiaries to lend funds to their US affiliates. This will do two things. First, there will be easing of CP demand because corporations can tap into internal funds without a taxable event. Foreign sub can be an internal lender of last resort. Second, there will be dollar buying.

Nevertheless, some of these flow distortions will come through means that are not readily apparent in the news. This rule was buried in the back pages of the news.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/business/07tax.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=irs&st=cse&oref=slogin

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