Wednesday, April 4, 2007

What to expect in crop commodities


There is a seasonal rhythm with commodities which is important to study to understand the markets where there can be the most significant risks and potential for surprises. The USDA provides a nice calendar for all of the major crops around the world each month.

The April crop calendar shows that corn planting may be the most important decision during the month. Cocoa flowering in Africa could provide the greatest event risk. We will also find out about the size of the South American soybean and corn harvests which will have an important effect on supply and prices for these key markets.

Given the size of the grain plantings in Brazil and Argentina, harvest information will provide some early warning on what may be the potential surpluses in these markets. Harvest information also feedbacks on planting intention in the United States. While corn prices fell on intentions, there can be a significant difference between intention and actions. The actions will be driven by current prices as well as weather conditions in the field.

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