“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

 “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.” -- Richard P. Feynman 

Macro investing is the belief in the ignorance of central bankers and policymakers...

I have always liked the quotes of Prof Feynman. His quotes have a universal quality and do not just apply to physics which is why I have taken liberties and applied his quote to macro investing. The great macro opportunity is not based on central bankers having the right monetary glide path, but bankers have ignorance with the facts surrounding them. 

From the Fed's FOMC minutes we find there is no consensus on policy choices nor on the facts presented. The Fed has not ended their emergency QE4. It is only slowing and soon to end, so liquidity is still being added to the economy. Given all their staff economists there is no agreement on when or how much QT should be undertaken to return to normal. 

There is not even agreement on the raising of rates. Is the economy so fragile that it cannot withstand a 50 bps hike? Is the economy so fragile that cutting $40 billion from their balance sheet each month for the next year will lead to instability? $480 billion from a $9 trillion balance sheet or approximately 5% of the total and 10% of the liquidity added since March 2020.

Assuming policy ignorance is what will allow many macro investors a chance at big money.