Friday, February 18, 2022

"Never bring data to a story fight..."


"Never bring data to a story fight..." - Prof Peter Dodds expert on narratives 

This quote is a great commentary on the power of narrative and the buzz kill that data can do to disagreement across narratives. A significant amount of time and effort with investing is associated with telling good narratives. The narrative attempts to provide a clear mental and emotional story. Narrative drives sentiment and interest in stocks and other investments. Narrative serves as a means of condensing a large amount of information into a clear picture as simple as a few words or a long written commentary. 

Phrases like "bear market", "correction", "tech rally", or "Fed behind the curve" are the simplest narratives that tries to convey a lot of information without any data. Data eliminate simple stories and closes discussions. Facts don't have feelings, so narratives are debated through alternative stories.

For the quant, data is more powerful in the fight because it is so precise and often without ambiguity. Of course, it needs interpretation which flows back to the issue of narrative, but facts are clarifying. Many would like to ignore the facts and keep the narrative, but in the precise world of quantitative investing, data remains supreme. 

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