Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Uncertainty is central

In fact, however, uncertainty is a central component of what makes science successful. Being able to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it into models is what makes science quantitative rather than qualitative. Indeed, no number, no measurement, no observable in science is exact. Quoting numbers without attaching an uncertainty to them implies that they have, in essence, no meaning.


"Uncertainty" - Lawrence Krauss This will make you smarter


We have to always qualify our level of uncertainty. This provides precision in forecasts. It is not enough to say a stock is going higher or going higher by $5, but rather it should be said that it is going higher by $5 with a certain probability.

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