Certainty is not good

"There is a widely held notion that does plenty of damage: the notion of "scientifically proved." Nearly an oxymoron. The very foundation of science is to keep the door open to doubt. Precisely because we keep questioning everything, especially our own premises, we are always ready to improve our knowledge. Therefore a good scientist is never "certain".

"The uselessness of certainty" Carlo Rovelli

There is no certainty in markets. Forecasts are wrong and we need to accept that there is little that can be proved or that there is value in fixed rules.