Sunday, March 1, 2009

Poor bond performance in the US

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Bond returns have not very positive in the US since the beginning of the year. The US bond market was one of the worst of any country in local terms especially in the G10. You would think with all of the negative talk about the US economy yields would continue their fall, but the data suggests that fixed income managers are worried about inflation and excess supply. The only thing that helped the US market was the continued strength of the dollar. If that does not hold, there will be some significant bond investment problems.


As of: 02/27/2009


J.P. MORGAN EMERGING MARKETS BOND INDEX-PLUS

The J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond-plus (EMBI+) Index measures total returns of external-currency-denominated debt instruments, including Brady bonds, loans, Eurobonds and US dollar-denominated local market issues. December 31, 1993=100.

Idx LevelTotal Return (%)

2/26 1 week YTD 12 Mos.

EMBI+388.740.24-0.70-10.48
Argentina46.51-0.24-2.08-56.56
Brazil638.74-0.40-4.850.62
Bulgaria629.33-0.543.50-8.01
Colombia311.360.24-1.90-2.29
Ecuador278.291.4627.34-66.54
Indonesia81.09-1.93-8.43-23.74
Mexico370.770.97-4.33-2.38
Panama651.120.400.15-5.82
Peru597.640.913.44-0.89
Philippines262.230.373.55-0.45
Russia412.70-0.803.00-14.64
South Africa153.350.855.181.05
Turkey267.341.44-3.92-5.73
Ukraine100.12-2.99-7.17-57.45
Venezuela372.630.9710.99-33.45

Source: J.P. Morgan



J.P. MORGAN OVERSEAS GOVERNMENT BOND INDEX


Local Currency
U.S. Dollar
Yield
Country Index Wkly % Chg YTD % Chg
Index Wkly % Chg YTD % Chg
% YTD Chg

Australia707.93-0.19-0.36
640.180.85-6.69
3.890.20
Belgium437.80-0.01-0.91
456.210.47-9.11
3.910.25
Canada578.73-0.33-1.38
604.940.95-2.08
3.170.23
Denmark513.72-0.36-1.09
533.680.11-9.35
3.640.29
France482.56-0.21-0.72
498.760.26-8.93
3.510.18
Germany366.65-0.14-0.08
374.990.33-8.34
3.150.07
Italy696.12-0.470.24
531.400.00-8.06
4.600.06
Japan237.45-0.03-0.41
297.98-4.45-8.30
1.290.10
Netherlands384.08-0.12-0.94
392.210.35-9.13
3.620.21
Spain628.660.13-1.24
516.900.61-9.41
4.040.29
Sweden615.890.05-1.06
398.33-2.62-12.46
2.530.25
U.K.565.92-0.99-3.17
430.96-0.63-3.27
3.900.38
U.S.457.68-0.42-3.55
457.68-0.42-3.55
2.870.66
Non-U.S.381.66-0.36-0.62
373.24-2.02-7.98
2.590.10
Global405.16-0.23-1.33
415.62-1.63-6.92
2.650.16

YTD-Year to date. Yields-Semi-annual. Dec. 31, 1987=100.
Source: J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index

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