This book, Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers is now 40 years old, yet it provides some good, simple insights on how to make better decisions. You may not be interested in the political stories provided, but they provide context on how best to use the Neustadt and May framework.
The method is defined as the K-U-P/L-D, or the known, unclear, and presumed, which is then used to compare with likeness and differences.
Determine what is known, define what is unclear, and then assess what is presumed by the decision maker. The decision-maker should then look for likenesses and differences in history, which can be used to define what is now of concern and what will be new objectives.
The authors suggest the Gldberg rule: don't ask "what is the problem?" Rather, ask, "What is the story?" by using a timeline from now to the start of the story.
Be a journalist and ask when, what, where, who, how, and why.
While this is not a quantitative process, it can be useful for framing discussions.
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