Showing posts with label macroeconomics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label macroeconomics. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Consumer sentiment not supporting market sentiment

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  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is now at the lowest level in 40 years. I could go back further. It is the lowest level ever rec...
Thursday, July 2, 2026

The single most important driver of the current housing market

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The housing market has stalled, with sellers not finding buyers at current prices. There is a logjam, with sellers unwilling to lower prices...
Monday, May 4, 2026

Periods of Stagflation - there have always been with us

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Despite strong performance in equity markets, there is still considerable talk of stagflation. The stagflation story is not just a 70's ...
Saturday, April 18, 2026

Narrative and macro investing

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  An exciting area of macro research is the use of narrative to help explain the weekly movements in equity markets. This work is still in i...
Monday, February 16, 2026

Meaaurement uncertainty is real

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  Macro investors have to deal with measurement error within government data. This is the second year in which we have seen major revisions ...
Sunday, February 8, 2026

“Low-hire, Low-fire” labor environment - Labor gridlock

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In a K-shaped economy, we are seeing labor market gridlock. Job openings are falling, and separations are low. Quit rates are also at the lo...
Thursday, January 29, 2026

The K-shaped economy - Wall Street versus Main Street

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  I normally hate the comments about the difference between Main Street and Wall Street. Usually, it is a false dichotomy, but the current e...
Thursday, July 24, 2025

Macrodrivers of stocks and bonds

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  The determination of the macroeconomic drivers of stocks and bands is a topic that has received much attention. If you can crack the holy ...
Monday, June 16, 2025

Market macrostructure matters

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  I found a recent paper, "Market Macrostructure: Institutions and Asset Prices" , an interesting research piece that opens up new...
Saturday, April 26, 2025

The explosion in housing wealth - what does it mean?

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  Forget about the stock market as a wealth creator. The housing market is generating a huge increase in household wealth, which should make...

GDP forecast and expectations all point in the same direction - down

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  Financial markets are in upheaval, albeit stocks are off their lows. Bonds reflect a substantial risk premium to hold both US Treasuries a...
Wednesday, April 2, 2025

There are limits to the value from a crowd of economists

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Is there a wisdom of crowds effect for macro forecasts? The answer is yes, per the new paper "On the wisdom of crowds (of economists)...
Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Recoveries will age but look for bad behavior first

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An old paper that I forgot about but still relevant today is "Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age?" . Recoveries can get lon...
Monday, March 24, 2025

Asymmetric financial shocks - always greater downside risks

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Financial shocks are asymmetric, that is, the impact of a downward financial shock is significantly greater than a positive shock. The asymm...
Monday, March 10, 2025

The dampened business cycle - Will this continue?

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  We present two charts: one showing the dampened business cycle and the second on current growth forecasts. First, we are in abnormal perio...
Friday, December 6, 2024

Using generative AI for economic forecasting

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  Generative AI can be used to enhance economic forecasts through simple aggregation from corporate conference calls. We know that corporate...
Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Risk cycles and the business cycle - Form low risk comes growth but also greater credit risk

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There is a business cycle, a credit cycle, and a risk cycle. These are all connected. In the paper, "The impact of risk cycles on busin...
Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Anxiety about downside risk not the same as uncertainty

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Investor market behavior is often filled with anxiety - the negative emotion from the anticipation of future risk, specifically downside ris...
Friday, September 6, 2024

It is not the inversion - it is the switch back to normal that signals a recession

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  There has been a lot of discussion about inverted yield curves indicating the likelihood of a recession. The curve inverts and the recessi...
Thursday, June 20, 2024

How long is long enough with a inverted yield curve signal

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  I have been disappointed by the inverted yield. I truly like the simplicity of yield curve inversion as a key recession indicator. It make...