In the paper "Monetary Policy and the Secular Decline in Long-term Interest Rates: A Global Perspective", the authors document that the changes in yields during the three-day windows around FOMC meetings account for approximately 70%% of the secular decline in interest rates across G10 currencies since the 1990s. The effect is even stronger for the US alone. Wow! Follow the behavior around Fed announcements and skip the rest of the time. There is also a cumulative decline in the dollar during those periods, associated with a decline in US convenience yield.
This is very interesting because it says that following the Fed is the only thing that matters to the bond market., Now, we knew that, but the full extent of this focus is amazing. Do not look at inflation or unemployment. Do not think about economic growth. All you need to know is wrapped up in the Fed’s actions. The time between Fed meetings is a period of noise for the bond markets.
Is this healthy? All we can say is that following the Fed and everything else is boring. Markets react to news and the news on monetary policy dominates global bond markets.

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