The short-term market is telling us rates will be higher

A good indicator of rate direction is the spread between 3-month Treasury bills and 1-year rates versus the EFFR. Market rates for slightly longer maturities show that the market is willing to clear at higher rates, and implied forward rates will, by definition, be higher. The switch from falling to rising rates occurred earlier this year, with the 1-year vs. EFFR spread rising sharply in the last month. Nothing suggests rates are headed lower.