Every analyst develops and markets year-end forecasts, but the most important part of forecasting is not knowing where we are going, but knowing where we are in the world economy. You cannot map the future if you do not know the current or past, and the critical issue is the end of globalization. Many discuss tariffs, but the real problem is what will happen to global trade and foreign direct investment.
Global trade is showing flat growth, and FDI flows have fallen significantly. There is a change in relative trade; however, for most living standards, the overall trade flattening is the key driver of growth.
The Great Globalization is over, and we will all suffer from this in 2026.
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