Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Kindleberger would not be happy with Trump

 


DeLong and Eichengreen argued that Kindleberger had seen how the “ability and willingness to bear the responsibility and sacrifice required for benevolent hegemony [was] likely to falter” in the United States way back in 1973. Kindleberger anticipated, they argue, what went wrong in 2012 — “extraordinary political dysfunction in the United States preventing the country from acting as a benevolent hegemon, and the ruling Mandarins in Europe, Germany in particular, unwilling to step up or convince their voters that they must assume the task” - Angus Bylsma

There is a US responsibility to guide the global economy. Some may say this is a myth in the current world before Trump, but clearly, President Trump has a different vision that does not include benevolent hegemony. Instead, it is a new form of isolationism based on a perception of trade fairness. Should the foundations and costs of the benevolent hegemony be discussed and adapted to the changing multi-polar world of the 21st century? Of course, rapid change creates uncertainty, and with uncertainty, there is an increased chance of mistakes as countries act and respond. 

Kindleberger's great work on the Great Depression focuses on a combination of economic mistakes and not a single monetarist story. The uncertainty of the 1930s created a set of conflicting policy goals and actions that exacerbated a fragile system after a crash. There was a lack of leadership and vision to coordinate global action to serve the common good. Perhaps this view is Pollyannish or only available through hindsight, but coordinated action across countries is needed, not a singular focus on interests followed by bilateralism.

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