The China economy is a global driver for growth for the simple reason it is a big economy and has a large trade footprint, but the current state of the Chinese economy is negative and not getting better, so China is likely it will be a drag on global growth for the rest of the year and well into 2025.
Consumer confidence is low and not improving. The animal spirits of optimism do not exist.
The real estate market continues to grind lower which impacts wealth and consumer spending. You can have strong consumer confidence it the largest investment of consumer is falling in price.
The PMI numbers are weak and clearly show a recessionary. environment for the real economy. Businesses are not making money.
The stock market pushes lower and is not providing a positive signal for the economy.
Finally monetary policy is pushing rates slower, yet government policies are tilted to stagnation as economic data are suppressed and there is little innovation in policy.
This weakness will show in commodity prices and in global trade. It is a growth headwind.
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