Saturday, February 17, 2024

PPI up - pushes Fed rate cuts into future



Yes, we know that the PPPI is not the key inflation measure used by the Fed. The focus is always on PCE not CPI or PPI. Nevertheless, the PPI gives us insight on what may happen to other inflation numbers. The correlation is far from perfect, but increases in PPI will play through the economy especially for services since services is such a large part of the US economy.

The inflation fight is not over.  Prices can be sticky and a strong growth economy with low unemployment will place upward pressure on prices. There is little reason for the Fed to change current rtes given current data. Fed cuts are pushed into the future and market rate expectations will come closer to Fed SEP estimates. 

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