Saturday, November 4, 2023

The planning fallacy and Hofstadter's Law

Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law. You can plan all you want, yet you will unlikely finish your task on time. Accept it. Own it. Solving complexity takes time, so any modeling should start simple and then slowly add complexity. Get a simple model that works and then look for marginal enhancements. This is especially relevant for quant models. You want to make it perfect, but then the planning fallacy kicks in. 

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