Sunday, September 17, 2023

Watch for false narratives and stick with the facts and numbers


"The [narrative] fallacy is associated with our vulnerability to over-interpretation and our predilection for compact stores over raw truths. It's severely distorts our mental representation of the world".  - Nassim Taleb 

Focus on the facts, not the story.  Stories are great and play a roll, but often the market narrative does not let facts get in the way of the good story. Start with the facts first and then construct the narrative, or better yet just state the facts and then discuss what happens when these facts have occurred in the past. 

Trend-following is not narrative worthy or narrative necessary. You buy what goes up because it is going up. You buy what is going down because it is going down. There is nothing more needed. There is no requirement for a neat story. there is no need for a discussion about what the market is thinking or what the Fed may be doing. It is boring and is supposed to be boring. These same could be said for other quantitative strategy. It is because the conditions exist not because of the story. You may like a story to embellish, but it is not necessary. 

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