Global commodity and entitlement relationships in three parts

• There is the supply of food - the measurement of what is produced for a given crop.
• There is the command of food - the control of the distribution of commodities. 
• There is the end ownership of food - The relationship between the food and the person who consumes it. 

• The supply issue is a production problem.
• The command issue is a logistics problem.
• The end ownership issue is a distribution/pricing problem.

This framework is a variation on the economic development work of Amartya Sen on famine which can be adapted to today. There is a supply problem given current weather and production. There is also a command problem because grain from the Ukraine cannot easily come to market. There is less an end ownership problem, but it can arise if there is a shortfall of income and ability to pay from higher inflation.

When an investor wants to discuss food commodities, the conversation should walk through these three issues. You may be surprised by market action because you focused on only one price component. More simply put, looking at supply without understanding demand or logistics is a loser's game. While our discussion is about food, the same framework can be applied to energy markets. The supply exists, but the command over oil and natural gas is restrictive and the end ownership is not affordable.