Focus on precision in your thought processes to improve decisions

"I do not pretend to start with precise questions. I do not think you can start with anything precise. You have to achieve such precision as you can, as you go along."

“To teach how to live without certainty, and yet without being paralyzed by hesitation, is perhaps the chief thing that philosophy, in our age, can still do for those who study it.”

- Bertrand Russell 

Good research should start with general questions and then add layers of complexity to be more precise. The original general question cannot be forgotten, but there should be a process of digging deeper and getting specific. 

For example, is the Fed behind the curve? The is very imprecise. The process then focuses in on what it means to be behind the curve, how much it is behind the curve, and why is it behind the curve. The investor then needs to focus which assets have priced in this idea of being behind the curve, how will prices adjust, and when will it happen. From the general there is move to the specific. If the thought process only stays general, there will never be an effective decision.

Of course, we will never get the precision needed to generate certainty; consequently, we need to accept and live with uncertainty. Accepting uncertain means we will accept that decision will be made without full information.

“One of the symptoms of an approaching nervous breakdown is the belief that one’s work is terribly important.” - Bertrand Russell