The Conference Board LEI index forecasts slower growth

 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators index is currently falling and indicating that real GDP should slow. The index has peaked since the pandemic recession. The index may not be calling for a recession at this time, but there are clear indications that the US economy will likely move to the 2% range. 

 

The ten components of the index for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM Index of New Orders; Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500 Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.