The forecasts for 2022 have all shifted lower even with the median in the same range of 2.5-3.9%. This is a significant move over the last quarter. The 2023 forecasts also show a shift lower with a greater 10% of recession, a more than doubling from the last survey.
The projections for inflation over the next 10 years is well above 2.5% and the highest since the late 1990's. Core PCE for 2023 has shifted higher with only a 20% chance that inflation will be lower than the target.
Higher inflation and lower growth forecasts are the consensus relative to what the Fed is forecasting. The Fed forecasts have lost creditability.
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