The dynamics of oil is always connected to inventories

 

Low stock levels for 2022 places a floor on any oil price decline. After the large build in 2020, stocks were drawn down to levels below their 5-year average and levels from a year ago. Now we are at levels not seen in the last five years and that was at the beginning of the year. we are at the same levels of ending stocks as a decade ago. 

Under current conditions, hard to see how there will be a build in the short run except if there is a major albeit unlikely change in demand.