Dot plot dispersion - Policy uncertainty is high

The important take-away from the Fed dot plots and policy announcement is not just the increase in the median since December, but the dispersion in opinions within the Fed and the skew to the upside. This is not consensus. Every dot for March is above the high from the last reading. 7 of 16 dots have rates above 2% by the end of the year. Every dot is above 2% for 2023. 

The wide dispersion is that interest rate uncertain is high and the opportunity for strong returns by playing the wings of the distribution is also high.