Inflation expectations and anchoring to actual inflation - Who knows?

 

Inflation is a global problem. More than have the economies of the world are seeing accelerating inflation. The US is one of the few that has seen some deceleration in the last three months, yet US inflation has been at a higher level than many other countries. Transitory currently does not seem to have strong meaning for economies.

Beyond the transitionary issue, the real focus for many investors is on the expectations of inflation and whether these expectations impact actual inflation. A recurring view is that the Fed should focus on controlling inflation expectations because these expectations are what influence and drive current price behavior. 

A provocative paper from a Fed staff economist, Jeremy Rudd, states that any link between expectations and actual inflation does not have strong support. See "Why do we think inflation expectations matter for inflation? (And should we?)" Rudd argues that what we assume about how inflation dynamics work is questionable and is not the simplest explanation. Any link between inflationary expectation and how people act when setting prices and negotiating wages should not be given as a normal. If we don't know or understand the process of how prices rise, then it will be difficult to control. The Fed cannot give forward guidance on policy and inflation and expect it to be useful if the process for how inflation moves is unclear. 

When we look a current inflation, we can easily draw a conclusion that many prices are set outside any expectations about central bank behavior. Port congestion, energy logistics, health costs, and wage negotiations for many employees are not influenced by expectations embedded in Treasury break-evens, TIPs, or forwards. We still don't know a lot about the inflation process.