Monday, September 13, 2021

The Fed behind the QE curve versus other central banks


The Fed is behind the curve relative to other central banks with QE tapering. Fed QE policy is behind even though the US real economy is recovering better than peers, inflation is higher than other countries, and financial markets are bubbly. Of course, each central bank has a different operating objective, but it is odd that the Fed is having such a hard time making this decision. No other central bank has had as much public handwringing on discussing when to start discussing tapering. Granted that the Fed and the dollar plays a special role in supporting global markets, but the delay does not seem to serve a purpose.

The impact of any tapering announcement will be diminished given this delay. The market will likely only focus on the forward guidance concerning rate moves and not focus on the actual tapering specifics. Nevertheless, the process of returning to normalcy should begin. The real question is whether the markets can accept a return to normalcy when fiscal deficits see no end and markets are in a period of extreme.

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