Fortune is he who understands the cause of things.

 

"Felix, qui potuit rerun cognoscere causas" 

Fortune is he who understands the cause of things.        - Virgil 

The poet Virgil provides a great quote for any investment researcher who is often faced with the problem of deciphering causality and separating it from correlation. This quote also uses the word happy instead of fortune for the translation of felix. 

Whether fortune or happiness, understanding the causation is one of the primary skills of analysts. However, the real work come after finding the cause. From the cause comes the forecast and from the forecast comes the decision. The forecast and action may be more important for the trader who wants to make. 

While finding the cause is critical, it is not imperative. For example, many successful traders are reactive and may not know the first cause. The trend-follower does not focus on the cause but rather the result in prices. Understanding of causes may  give fortune but may not lead to wealth.