Wednesday, April 14, 2021

An index of common inflation expectations - A helpful tool from the Fed



There are many inflation indicators of expectations, so any investor is faced with trying to determine which one is best or how to bundle these indicators into a single index. Some Fed economists have done the job through looking at an index of common inflation expectations which will be available on a quarterly basis. It should be noted that many of the Fed banks provide different inflation benchmarks including trimmed and  median CPI, inflation nowcasts. 

There are some flaws with tracking this index and it does not use any more information than other surveys, but it provides a simple measure of grouped inflation expectations that can provide another way of setting some benchmark. It is notable that there are significant differences in the correlations for inflation survey expectations. The current reading shows inflation expectations have not changed significantly and still seem anchored around 2 percent. 



 

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