Using a combination of short, intermediate, and long-term trends across the major markets within a sector, we make judgments on potential trend behavior for the coming month. Our signals are surprisingly mixed as we move into the post-Labor Day period. While there are some upward and downward biased sectors, all seem more range bound with no consistency between short and longer-term trends. This was after a good trading month in August.
US equity markets continue to move higher although global markets are not showing the same pattern. Bonds are mixed given the risk-on environment and the demand for safety on an international level. Rates are consistent with steady central bank policies. Currencies reflect the risk in EM, but the dollar rally seems to have lost the momentum seen earlier in the summer. Precious metals markets have continued to negatively correlate with dollar movements while base metal price directions are mixed on global growth prospects. Energy prices have not exceeded highs from earlier in the summer and commodities have been more sensitive to tariff talks.
Markets may be subject to break-outs this month, but current price action does not point in any strong direction.
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