Thursday, September 18, 2014

Europe vs. the US - a different story


The US unemployment has fallen nicely since 2010. There are issues whether the labor market is truly healthy, but the labor dynamics have been positive albeit not at the pace desired by the Fed. In Europe, there has been a steady increase in unemployment during the post financial crisis period with only recently the numbers starting the fall. The sovereign debt crisis around the EU created a poor labor environment in away not faced by the US. The unemployment difference or gap of this unemployment change is high. The US is about 1% above 2008 levels but Europe is over 4% higher. 


Eurozone GDP is still below 2008 levels while the US is over 6% higher. The US has shown steady growth while Europe is only at 2011 levels. 


The ECB balance sheet as a percentage of GDP has actually declined since the end of 2012 while the US and and Japan have continued to increase. The UK levels have declined slightly. by this measure of correlation, the QE programs seems to have been effective relative to those central banks which showed more constraint.

Interest rates have come down sharply in Europe with little to show for new investment and growth while US investment markets have been on one long ride higher.

Core and headline inflation in the Eurozone are both below 1% which suggests that the threat of deflation is still real. The US  inflation has been below target but does not seem to be headed for deflation.

There economic gap between the US and EU is growing and the evidence suggests that the divergence between these economic zones is not going to decline. Asset markets will further reflect the economic differences.
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