Michael Mandelbaum presents a spirited defense of free trade and globalization. His thesis is that globalization is irreversible and a positive force for global wealth formation. I would like to believe this story but the news of today does not seem to provide the evidence needed for a positive story.
His optimism is that global war is a thing of the past and that most countries agree with the desire for wealth creation and economic growth.There is a strong propensity for free markets and technology is going to help sustain global prosperity. The road may be bumpy, but it is one that everyone in the world wants to travel on.
Unfortunately, his view of the world is not much different than the conventional wisdom before World War I. In that pre-war vision, there would be no global war because the connections through trade were just too strong. The pre-WWI period was a high point in global trade that took decades to again reach after the Great War.
Mandelbaum's selective use of information and unfounded optimism tells a good story for globalization, but the reality seems to be much darker. A lack of cooperation across nations, an international finance system that is broken, sovereign debt problems across all continents, and regional wars from non-state players that do not seem likely to be resolved with any treaty all make for a dangerous world. The prudent man should be focusing on tail events and not try to form a world vision of what we would like but rather what we see.
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