Thursday, June 26, 2014

US set to lift crude export ban



It has been 40 years since the US placed an export ban on crude oil in order to help the country through the Arab oil embargo during the 1973 Arab-Israeli (Yom Kippur) War. You can ask the simple question of what took so long to change the policy. You can also ask the question as to whether lifting this export ban is good energy policy. We finally are on track to provide better energy independence and we want to change the rules of the game. As usual, there will be unintended consequences from this change in policy.




This is all possible because US oil and natural gas production has increased significantly over the last five years. The production increase is all associated with the shale oil being found in a set of key basins. Most of the new oil is light and ultralight oil that does not need as much refining or can have limited "processing". This is the type of oil that is being discussed as appropriate for export. The total production from this new oil just about offsets the decline in production from Middle East disruptions. US production has increased by 3 million barrels a day since 2009. The oil boom has been good for jobs and has placed a cap on what would be a tighter global oil market but it has not lowered prices substantially. Overall, we still need a US energy policy because the production advantage today is unlikely to last.

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