Friday, March 28, 2014

Fighting the dark forces of behavioral biases




Overconfidence and Optimism - In ourselves or expert advisors.
Data Mining -Finding patterns out of randomness to predict the future.
Anchoring -Mentally locking in a price even though it is now irrelevant.
Hindsight Bias -Predicting the past as if one knew what would happen.
Fear and Greed -Running from a down market and toward a bull market.
Mental Accounting -Believing we are doing better than we are.
Status Quo - Aversion to change.

This list is from an interesting wealth consultant, but it does not address directly how to deal with these problems. All of the above can be addressed through a systematic approach to investing. 
Overconfidence and Optimism -The model is the expert and it has no ego.
Data Mining -A model can be set to have tolerances to avoid data mining. Only choose those factors that are statistically relevant.
Anchoring -A computer generated model does not care about a preset price accept if it is programmed to view it as important.
Hindsight Bias -Models can be built that adds uncertainty. The mapping between model and decision can be adjusted so that stronger (weaker) signals lead to larger (smaller) risk exposures.
Fear and Greed -Structure can be added to hold winners and sell losers. Mean reversion can be added to offset issues of extreme moves.
Mental Accounting -A model can focus on the critical issue of dollars in and dollars out.
Status Quo - A model can always be adjusted or adapted to the environment.

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