Monday, October 21, 2013

Is there something wrong with monetary policy?


Reuters has provided a great set of graphs which show the changes in monetary policy and the reaction in growth, inflation, yields, and the stock market. Its is notable that markets have not behaved as expected during QE3 relative to QE1 or QE2. 

Notice that inflation has actually been falling during QE3 not rising like what was seen in QE1 or QE2. If the objective of monetary policy was to increase inflation so that consumers will spend more. It is not happening. Prices are not rising. Real GDP is showing mixed performance. There may have been a reason to have QE3 because real growth was declining, but we have not seen any sharp reaction since the beginning of the program. 

Stocks have continued their ascent even with modest growth. It is notable that when QE ends, there is a sell-off in stocks. The dded liquidity is pushing asset prices higher bot not the prices of goods or the demand for goods and services. 

Yields have usually jumped higher during QE and decline once the central bank purchases are completed. The reaction was slower this time because of operation Twist, but yields are starting to move to levels seen at the low-end of QE1 and QE2.

Is this what the Fed wants? Is this what they expected? I don't think so. Is it time to think of other policy options. My answer is yes. There needs to be structural reform to make it easier to lend to consumers and businesses. 

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