Monday, August 26, 2013

Is Fed-fixation a psychological condition?

Is Fed fixation a psychological condition? It seems like it is and there does not seem to be a cure for this psychosis. The symptoms are clear. There is a nervous twitching every time a Fed official starts talking about reducing the purchases under QE. There is an unhealthy focus on Fed behavior to the exclusion of anything else that may drive the economy. There is an irrational reaction to economic news so that poor data is good because it means more  QE and good news is bad because that would suggest a cutback on QE.

what is missed is the argument that has been put forward by the San Fransisco Fed and their research team that forward guidance is a more important driver. The Fed purchases could be cutback but if the forward guidance is that interest rates will stay low, the market should key on the guidance on not on the quantity of purchases. 

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