Forecasting for the new year - think Schelling

"There is a tendency in our planning to confuse the unfamiliar with the improbable. The contingency we have not considered seriously looks strange; what looks strange is thought improbable; what is improbable need not be considered seriously."

- Thomas Schelling foreword in Roberta Wohlsteller Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision

It does not make sense to come up with wild speculation on different market scenarios, but it does make sense to think and plan for those actions which are less likely. Determine what is normal and then think about deviations from the norm. We should expect a slowdown in 2013 given the austerity of governments. Hence, the focus should be on what would happen if that is not the case.