Catastrophe risks are real

By definition, all but the last doomsday prediction is false. Yet it does not follow, as many seem to think that all doomsday predictions must be false; what false is only that all such predictions but one are false.

Catastrophe: Risk and Response  Richard A. Posner

Judge Posner provides a nice little book on issues of catastrophe risk. These risks are real and need to be addressed even if the events are very unlikely to occur.  Cost benefit is not easy to apply in these cases but it still serves as a way to judge the size of the problem. Yet, how can it be easy to judge the cost of a pandemic, an asteroid hitting the earth, global warming? It is not, but just because it is hard does not mean that we have avoid the discussion and not try to plan for these events. As aptly put in the quote, most predictions will be false except for the last one.