Consumer confidence as a good election indicator

 

Bloomberg has looked at a simple election barometer, the Conference Board Consumer confidence index. If the consumer confidence is high, the incumbent will win. If it low, the "throw the bums out" mentality will prevail. The switch point is at a reading of 95. Above 95 and you are safe. Below 95 and you should look for another job if you are the president. the sample is small but at a reading of 60.6 suggest that President Obama is in trouble. No wonder he does not want to talk about his economic record or the economy. 

The link between economic growth and confidence is positive, so the consumer confidence is a good proxy for the well-being of the US economy. Consumer confidence has been falling since February. It is higher than when Obama entered office and it is higher than a year ago. These are some of the few positives in the confidence numbers. The issue is whether  consumers have a long or short memory of 2008.