Story-telling and forecasting

Learn the facts, Steed-Sprey used to say, then try on the stories like clothing.


-  John Le Carre Tinker Tailor, Soldier Spy

 This is always a good lesson for any analyst. Get comfortable with the facts associated with the market. What are the numbers? Then start to weave a story around the numbers as presented. Do not work from the story and then find the facts. There can be multiple stories that may fit the facts. They should all be tried to determine what makes sense.