Rational beliefs can be wrong

The fact that I am wrong, Smiley had once replied ... does not make you right.. 

- John Le Carre  The Honorable Schoolboy

There can be rational beliefs which are consistent with the data and with distribution of  a forecasted series but still wrong. Pointing out the error of logic does not make any alternative better. Multiple views may all be wrong. This multiplicity of errors is one of the great subtle issues in an age of uncertainty.