Sunday, June 10, 2012

“Dollar deemed a lesser evil” or the safety fortress

Does it really matter if the dollar is the lesser evil or a fortress of safety. Yes, the reasoning is different and tells a very different story about the US and global economy. 

The dollar is a safety fortress during most crises. It is still the place of safety around the world because places like Switzerland are too small and Japan does not have the developed financial system to serve as a reserve currency for safety. Both are creditor countries and will see gains when there is a safety crisis, but the dollar is still the fortress of choice.  The Fed has also stabilized the growth of money relative to other large G7 currencies. This provides currency protection. 

The dollar is also the lesser evil because the fiscal problems of Europe are also present in the US. The risks are still a few years off but present. Fiscal risks can increase in the next year if there is another recession. While slow, the US growth rate still looks better than most G7 countries. By a matter of degree, we can think of the dollar as the lesser evil. A currency is always a relative price.  

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