Commodities going in seperate directions

 

There is a decline in commodities for 2012 which is driven by the decline in economic growth, but the last month has seen a growing divergence in sectors. Grain markets are positive for the year but softs and energies have continued to stay at low levels. The weather effects have overridden any macro effects.  

 

The impact of the business cycle is strong over the last year. The peak in performance was hit in April of 2011.  There was a slight increases during the first quarter of the year after strong economic information and the belief that central banks would provide more liquidity. As economic data again turned lower there was a return to the trend decline.

Three year charts show the recovery in the economy and the subsequent reversal. The recession bottomed in the summer of 2009, but commodities have shown mixed performance. Energy markets have declined with the fall in natural gas. Livestock has moved sideways during this period. Softs have moved away from highs with the higher cotton and sugar harvests. The only markets which have maintained higher levels is precious metals.