Monday, May 28, 2012

Strategic allocation to attention - the real will power of a trader

Will power is an important skill and it can be measured early. There have been a set of well-known experiments to test the will power of small children. The child is placed in a room with a marshmallow or some other treat. The child is told that if he can hold out for a set amount of time he will get two marshmallows. The question is whether the child can engage in delayed gratification. Films show that for many the idea of waiting for your treat is a real problem. Yet, there are others who seem to be able to achieve the goal of waiting. More importantly than seeing difference in children is determining what is the impact of those who show will-power later in life and how is the will power achieved.

Tracking those which showed will power suggested that this talent was a key to future success. Those children who waited longest were able to achieve higher test scores later in life. Some have argued that this shows how the conscious mind can control the subconscious. Others state that this will power provides insight in the time value discounting of individuals and how individuals invest in longer-term goals.

The Mischel or Stanford Marshmallow experiments attempt to measure will power, but a closer observation concluded that more was going on with the kids. The kids actually engaged in a behavior to actively ignore the treat. They tried to refocus on other activities in order to forget about the treat within their reach. What was concluded is that the kids engaged in a strategic allocation of their attention. This strategic allocation to attention whether for or against some goal was the form of will power being employed.

In trading and the rest of life, it may be the strategic allocation of attention which drives success not will power. Those who are able to concentrate or block out noise or irrelevant information may be more able to deal with complex markets than those who have less attention.The idea of allocation to attention may be more descriptive of will power  behavior. There is a skill with adapting to information overload. Those that can block excessive or useless information will be more successful than those that are easily distracted or who cannot process large amount of information. Perhaps a key character trait of successful individuals is not so much what is used but what is ignored?

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